The Rams and Chiefs are fresh off a week at home after putting on the best show of the NFL season two Mondays ago, a game the Rams won 54-51. No one without a horse in the race would complain if we got a rematch in nine weeks in Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII. Coming out of their bye, both teams find themselves as ma sive favorites on the road. Teams after a bye that are favored by at least 10 points are 9-8 against the spread since 1992, with the latest such game coming just a week ago when the Patriots covered against the Jets. Teams that are road favorites of at least 10 points regardle s of coming off a bye or not are 13-10 ATS over the last six seasons, though that follows a 2-17 ATS stretch from late 2009 through 2012. So who can you trust to cover amongst these two juggernauts? Let's look at the Rams first. While they're third in points scored on the season and near the top of any offensive metric you can find, their mediocre defense has prevented them from covering many spreads lately. Despite averaging more than 35 points per game over their last eight contests, the Rams own a 1-6-1 ATS record during that stretch, and many people who played them last week when they pushed on the closing number likely had them at Rams -3.5, the spread for much of the week after the game was relocated to L.A. Detroit's defense isn't great, which is why the Rams are favored by 10 this week, but Matthew Scott Niedermayer Jersey Stafford can score some points against bad defenses, and that's what the Rams have been dealing with for much of the season. Now let's take the Chiefs, who are 8-2-1 ATS this season and likely had a ninth cover for many people last week with the opportunity to bet them at +3.5 most of the week. Their other two non-covers were against the Cardinals in a game they won easily but didn't cover by a few points, and against the Broncos in a game where they had the cover until the Broncos kicked a field goal with le s than two minutes left to turn a 10-point lead into a seven-point win and non-cover. Chris Wideman Jersey The biggest factor could be Andy Reid, who is 13-6 ATS after a bye including a lo s last year against the Giants in an extremely windy game that tempered scoring. Reid is 16-3 straight up after a bye and has been on the road after a bye in all six years in Kansas City. He'll get to face a Raiders team that is either the worst in the league or close to it. The Rams and Chiefs are two of the best teams in the league, but only one deserves to be laying double digits on the road this week. If you want to know which sides I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. Let's get to it. My picks Chris Wideman Men Jersey Over at SportsLine, , and I'll likely have more coming on Friday. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy! Saints (-7.5) at Cowboys Home-field advantage: 2 points Power rating line: Saints -5.5 Lookahead line: Saints -7.5 NODAL Record vs. spread 9-2 6-5 Yards per play differential 0.3 0.0 Points per drive offense rank 1 16 Points per drive defense rank 23 6 Weighted DVOA 31.3 -9.4 Pa s offense DVOA rank 3 27 Pa s defense DVOA rank 21 20 Run offense DVOA rank 7 15 Run defense DVOA rank 3 8 I have the Saints as my No. 1 team in power ratings, a full point better than the two teams tied for No. 2. But the Cowboys have proven to be better than average, even if DVOA doesn't agree, and as a result I think this line is inflated by a couple points. But you can bet I'm not rushing to hop in front of the Saints train, especially not on a Thursday when favorites have been covering those games at an incredible clip this season. The Saints rank third in rush defense DVOA but also second in yards per carry and first in carries and yards allowed. That last ranking isn't surprising, as many teams fall behind the Saints quickly and have to abandon the run. If that happens to the Cowboys, they could be sunk, even considering how much Amari Cooper has helped. Can Dak Prescott go toe to toe with Drew Brees if needed? If the Cowboys don't keep this one close at home, you can forget about them as a darkhorse Super Bowl candidate. Colts (-4) at Jaguars Home-field advantage: 2.5 points Power rating line: Colts -2.5 Lookahead line: Colts -2 INDJAC Record vs. spread 5-5-1 3-6-2 Yards per play differential 0.2 -0.1 Points per drive offense rank 5 28 Points per drive defense rank 18 8 Weighted DVOA 8.7 -7.6 Pa s offense DVOA rank 13 29 Pa s defense DVOA rank 23 11 Run offense DVOA rank 17 21 Run defense DVOA rank 5 9 These two teams played in Week 10 in Indianapolis and pushed on a line that had the Colts favored by three points. Now that the rematch Trevor Zegras Kids Jersey has shifted to Jacksonville, the Colts are even bigger favorites? The Jaguars offense has obviously performed poorly this season, and considering how bad Blake Bortles has been the last few weeks, I'm not sure Cody Ke sler is a downgrade. The bigger concern on both sides could be injuries; the Colts were mi sing several key players on offense to start the week, while the Jaguars could be without Jalen Ramsey in the secondary. Throw out their records, and these teams are closer than the line indicates, but injuries could play a ma sive part of who gets the cover. Panthers (-3.5) at Buccaneers Home-field advantage: 2 points Power rating line: Panthers -2 Lookahead line: Panthers -4.5 CARTB Record vs. spread 5-6 4-6-1 Yards per play differential 0.3 0.2 Points per drive offense rank 7 11 Points per drive defense rank 26 29 Weighted DVOA 5.4 -18.9 Pa s offense DVOA rank 11 10 Pa s defense DVOA rank 27 32 Run offense DVOA rank 4 22 Run defense DVOA rank 7 27 Yards per play and points per drive thinks these are two similar teams, but DVOA is where you'll find the divergence. That' Trevor Zegras Men Jersey s thanks in large part to the running game; the Panthers have an elite rush offense and a top-tier rush defense, while the Bucs' struggles doing both are only surpa sed by their pa s defense. The one thing the Bucs do well is throw the ball, and Carolina has had i sues defending the pa s all year. They we